NFL First Guessing – Week 3

Well I have no catchy intro, other than that I’m off to a miserable fantasy start to the season.  Maurice Jones-Drew and Joseph Addai are not coming through for me.  But so it goes.

Bears Thoughts

There’s the old saying “bad teams find a way to lose,” and the Bears certainly found ways to lose that game.  The Panthers are not a bad team by any stretch, but the Bears absolutely should have won that game, and they found a way to lose it.  And, surprise surprise, the offense was terrible, but it was terrible in a way I wasn’t quite expecting.  Instead of not being able to move the ball at all, they moved it relatively well, just turned it over.  Well I should say, Greg Olsen turned it over.

And in looking back at week 1, though the Bears did feel fully in control throughout the whole game, the Colts had the ball down by 2, and Briggs recovered a fumble and ran it in.  Without that turnover, who knows what would have happened in that game.  We were in the same position this week, we just didn’t get the turnover.
Kyle Orton does look remarkably mature as the starting QB, and for the most part he makes good decisions, however, he’s just not a stud QB.  The Bears may make the playoffs with him as QB, but they’re not going to get much further than that, even if there was talent around him.  With Lloyd as your #1 receiver, let’s face it, this is not a talented offense.

Forte is for real though, and with Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart, and Darren McFadden, this could turn out to be a phenomenol running back draft.  Forte should be around for a while, but if Orton doesn’t somehow turn into something else, we still don’t have a QB to build on.  And this administration has a terrible track record for QBs.  Actually, this whole organization does.  I find myself so jealous of Denver right now (Cutler’s a stud).

So the Bears are still certainly better than I thought they would be, but if they continue to find ways to lose, then maybe they just are a bad team.  With the triumphant return of Brian Griese, the defense should put us in a place where our offense could find ways to lose again.

Morgan’s Week 2 Story No One Else Has Talked About

Aaron Rodgers vs. Jay Cutler.  I guess both have been talked about quite a bit, but so many people are praising Aaron Rodgers and most people are mentioning Jay Cutler as being pretty solid, but not raving about him.  I realize that part of the allure of Aaron Rodgers is that he’s filling in for Brett Favre, but Rodgers has faced the Vikings (with one of the most lopsided defenses ever – phenomenol running D, horrible passing D) and the Lions (who seem on pace to be one of the worst defenses ever assembled).

Jay Cutler has faced the Raiders and the Chargers, both of whom have pretty good passing D’s, and not only did he face them, but he lit them up.  At the end of the season, he could very well be a top 3 QB, and with Brady down, possibly 2 or 1.  And to think, I could have had him in both my fantasy leagues, and I past on him and ended up with Garrard in one league.  I’m going to live to regret that.

I will say though, I’m a huge fan of both of these guys this year, and as long as the Packers don’t do too much this year, I’m totally rooting for Rodgers the whole way.

I know that wasn’t great, but I didn’t have much else to work with for the stories no one else has talked about.  I wrote a check with this idea that I’m not going to be able to cash, I just know it.

Week 3 Picks

Last Week Record:  9-6
Season Record:  18-15

Kansas City @ Atlanta

Told you Atlanta would come back down to earth last week.  Talk about a soft couple home games they’ve had to start, though.  KC and Detroit.

Oakland @ Buffalo

Buffalo is looking good.  When’s the last time they started off 3-0?  Maybe they’ll make the Super Bowl and lose.  Too soon?

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

I’m partially picking Tampa with reverse psychology in mind, and partially because I just think they’ll have our number.  And I LOVED Earnest Graham in fantasy this year, and I passed on him in both drafts, hoping he would fall to me in the following round and he did not.  Meh, hindsight blah blah.

Carolina @ Minnesota

Adrian Peterson gametime decision.  Gus Frerotte the new starter in Minnesota.  Sydney Rice out, Bernard Berrian turf-toe’ing it.  Why does anyone still pick Minnesota?  They could crash and burn really quick this year.  Plus I hate them.

Miami @ New England

You’d think the Matt Cassel era beginning would up the value of Laurence Maroney on one of my fantasy teams.  However, he still sucks.  And why is Miami not using Ronnie Brown?  Maybe he really isn’t that good, but over the last couple seasons following his numbers and his performance, he seems like a legit #1 RB.  But maybe I’m just missing something.

Cincinnati @ NY Giants

Cincy is such a mess it’s unreal.  What a waste of a lot of offensive talent.  I’m rooting for Marvin Lewis to get out.

Houston @ Tennessee

Tennessee may have the best D in the league.  And I’m rooting for Houston so much, but it’s just not happening.  Maybe the early extra week off thanks to Ike will help them out.  They’ve got potential (though not in the running game).

Arizona @ Washington

Kurt Warner can’t be as good as he was last game.  I don’t think he’s bad, but he’s going to have a miserable game here soon and remind everyone that he’s still old Kurt Warner.  I love the guy, just being honest.  And thanks to losing opening day, Washington is totally under the radar now.  They’re a good team.  This actually should be a pretty great game.

New Orleans @ Denver

Denver escapes from a near loss (or rather they should have lost) and now play a soft D.  This could be another shootout.

Detroit @ San Francisco

It’s hard to imagine picking the Lions the rest of the season.  It blows my mind that they actually took the lead in that Green Bay game.  And then not only did they lose it, but they lost it BIG time.  Calvin Johnson, though, monster.  San Fran isn’t great either, but they’re better than Detroit.

St. Louis @ Seattle

Man both of these teams turned out to be a lot worse than I thought they would be.   So I guess I’ll pick terrible over awful.

Cleveland @ Baltimore

I hate this pick of mine, but Baltimore with the week off, allowing McGahee to get back into the lineup, and Cleveland already floundering, it’s hard to go against the Ravens, even with Flaco.  I’m rooting big time for this pick to be wrong.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Jacksonville has to turn it on here, and we all know that they have a talented team.  @ Indy seems like the perfect opportunity for them to get going.

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

I solely take Philly in this game because they’re the home team.  Both Pitt and Philly look way better than I thought they would.  This will be a great great game.

Dallas @ Green Bay

I’m wondering if Aaron Rodgers is a little Rex Grossman-ish.  Like he starts off the first month of the season just on fire, Offensive Player of the month, all that.  And then things crash and burn.  We’ll see, but this is the biggest game they’ve had so far, so it’ll be interesting.  Tony Romo, undrafted free agent.  Why can’t the Bears ever find that?  The best we’ve ever done was Henry Burris.

NY Jets @ San Diego

San Diego is better than 0-2, and they were really close to being 2-0.  They’ll find a way to win this one.


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