NFL First Guessing – Week 1

Look what’s back?!  I know you’re all as excited as I am.  I revel at my own nerdery in not only how excited I am for football to start, but also to be writing these weekly columns again, as well as my big Fantasy Football Draft in less than an hour (from typing this).

But I’ll begin by telling you what I’m not excited about for this football season:

-  The fact that I just know I’m going to be in a position in this Fantasy draft where I’m staring Adrian Peterson right in the face, and I’ll have to pass, because I just can’t bear to take him.

-  The fact that Larry Johnson is going to suck this year, and I’m completely banking on him in one Fantasy league.

-  Oh yeah, I almost forgot.  The fact that the Bears are going to be terrible this year.  TERRIBLE.

Bear Down, Chicago Bears

Alright, so let’s just get right to it. I love all the talk in the offseason about “who’s going to be the QB at Chicago?”  As if that even matters in the slightest.  Rex or Kyle, doesn’t matter.  There are far bigger question marks.

-  Will the Defense bounce back?  (My answer, yes they will)

-  Will the Bears actually have an offense that exists?  (My answer – Offense?)

-  Can Matt Forte be a #1 RB?  (My answer – possibly, but most certainly not this year)

-  Will there ever be a WR that comes to Chicago and lives?  (My answer – probably not)

This coaching staff and management are the very definition of insanity – trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results.  Making the Super Bowl on special teams, defense, and a handful of really big plays from the offense was the absolute pinnacle of this administration’s run.  They have proven time and time again that they cannot change from that basic strategy.  With the players they have now, I just cannot see that changing this year.  In fact, I see it completely reverting back to a couple years before the Super Bowl.

And what’s even worse is that I cannot see where this team is going in the next few years either.  What are we building on?  Matt Forte?  Do you build a team around him?

So I’m predicting them to be 5-12 this year, and last in the NFC North.  My expectations cannot be lower, so at the very least, I probably won’t be disappointed.

So now that I’ve said that, please please please prove me wrong Bears.

Fantasy Roundup:

I know the other thing you’ve been waiting for is Morgan’s fantasy football roundup.  I’ll make it brief.  I think I did pretty well in both drafts, although one draft was a newly formed keeper league, and the best keepers I had were Larry Johnson and Andre Johnson.  While I’m excited about Andre, I am certainly not about Larry.  I did get Willie Parker and Laurence Maroney as my other backs, and got Cutler as my QB (who I think will have a great year).  Winslow as TE
Other league, RB’s were plentiful, for some reason or another, so I got Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Thomas Jones as my top 3 backs, which I feel really good about.  Little weak at receiver as my top three are Santonio Holmes, Roy Williams, and Santana Moss.  Garrard as QB (Shaub as backup) and Cooley as TE (who I love this year).  So not too bad overall.

Week 1 Picks

Last Season Record:  160 – 96  (not bad)
Washington @ NY Giants

I hate to jump on the “hating NY Giants” bandwagon, but I think Washington is better than people think.  So I think they get the better of them tonight.

Detroit @ Atlanta

Who do you pick, crappy or crappier?

Cincinatti @ Baltimore

Cincy is a mess, and they have so much talent I wonder if they can get it together this year.  I’m betting not in the first week.

Seattle @ Buffalo

Buffalo has to turn the corner one of these years, and Seattle has to officially collapse one of these years right?

NY Jets @ Miami

This is a fascinating game for fantasy, and the whole “Favre’s first game” and “Pennington’s first game against NYJ” is interesting too.  This is an oddly interesting game the first week.

Kansas City @ New England

And here’s where Larry Johnson gets 46 yards on 24 carries, and I frantically start to look for another RB to pick up.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

I think this may turn into a shoot out, as both D’s are a little weak (I think Tampa’s is overrated this year).

St. Louis @ Philadelphia

I guess this is my upset special, but Philly has so many question marks this year, and St. Louis just can’t be as bad as they were last year.

Houston @ Pittsburgh

Ah, what the heck, this’ll be my other upset special.  Pittsburgh also has some question marks on D, and Houston should have a pretty good passing attack this year (though the running game might be a mess).  Maybe they get the best of them in week 1.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

This should be a pretty great game, though Jacksonville is the better team.

Dallas @ Cleveland

Oh man, this will be a fun game to watch.  I’ve never been more of a Cleveland fan, since Dallas has turned into the new Oakland (picking up all the convicts), but I just can’t pick them this week.

Carolina @ San Diego

San Diego is the sexy pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and I’m not sure I would value them that high, but they will still be very good.  And LT has to lay a fantasy egg one of these years right?  He’s been #1 overall pick 5 or 6 years in a row now.  “Meh” are my thoughts on Carolina.

Arizona @ San Francisco

I have no idea who to pick in this one.  Some people are saying Kurt Warner’s #5 QB or something like that overall.  Really?  Did he grow thumbs?  Yet at the same time, JT O’Sullivan?  Ugh, who knows.  (Tim Hightower was my big sleeper in one of my drafts.  Backup RB to Edge, if you have no idea who he is)

Chicago @ Indianapolis

So after everything I said about the Bears, I’m going to pick them in this game.  I think that the Bears D will be back to form (somewhat), and I could easily see them taking Indy by surprise this week, especially with all the “Will Manning play?” distractions.  However, I do think the Bears win this because of a special teams touchdown, a defensive touchdown (maybe two), and a couple good field position TDs or field goals.  This then enables the Bears coaching staff to feel like they’re doing well, just in time for it to all come crashing down over the following 5 or 6 weeks.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

I got so irritated with Brett Favre in the offseason, and how everyone was on his side.  The man retired, then came back, and got irritated that his old team had moved on.  What did you think they’d do?!  I just thought he handled the whole thing very arrogantly.  Because of that, I’m totally an Aaron Rodgers fan this year, as much as I can be while still hating Green Bay.  I hate Minnesota more.

Denver @ Oakland

Denver could be a really good team this year.  Not just the normal 9-7 Broncos, but I just have a feeling they could come out of nowhere and go 13-3 or something like that.

So yay for football being back!  My absolute favorite time of year.  And with the Cubs being (probably) playoff bound, it makes it even better.

Also, I’ll post mine and Tim’s annual picks shortly.

Bear down, Chicago Bears!  I will still cheer, regardless as to how dejectedly.

3 thoughts on “NFL First Guessing – Week 1”

  1. “Houston @ Pittsburgh

    Ah, what the heck, this’ll be my other upset special.”

    I just don’t know what to say anymore…

  2. hehe, sorry about that, Jonathan. There’s always a couple of unlikely victories in the first week. You may notice I picked the Steelers to not make the playoffs too.

    I’m not huge on the Steelers this year, but hey, I’ve been wrong before. And I can pretty much guarantee you that they will be better than the Bears.

  3. I’m surprised no one commented: either the Bears play 17 games this year, or you meant 5–11 (or 4–12), not 5–12. (Yes, I’m catching up on reading.)

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